Stockhouse.com: The new gold rush: Barrick Gold, Globex Mining, and Rio Tinto are forging the supply chains of tomorrow

Global markets are trembling: trade wars are tearing supply chains apart, raw materials are becoming weapons, and gold is shining as the savior in times of crisis. With a record high of over US$3,500 per ounce, the precious metal is taking centre stage – driven by inflation, geopolitical shock waves, and greedy central banks. Yet, in the background, a new power dynamic is taking shape: companies that are not only developing deposits but also forging the future of resource security. This is where it will be decided who pulls the strings in the chaos of trade blockades – and who becomes a pawn. Three players are suddenly in the spotlight: Barrick Gold, Globex Mining (TSX:GMX), and Rio Tinto.

Barrick Gold – From precious metals giant to diversified mining group

Barrick Gold, one of the world’s leading gold producers, is strategically repositioning itself. The planned renaming to “Barrick Mining Corporation” highlights the growing focus on copper. CEO Mark Bristow emphasizes that the Company aims to strengthen its role as a diversified commodity player – with gold remaining a core component. With the Reko Diq project in Pakistan and the Lumwana copper mine in Zambia, Barrick is expanding its presence in copper, a metal of the future that is central to the energy transition. The change of the NYSE ticker symbol from GOLD to B in May 2025 symbolizes this change. For investors, the realignment could open up long-term growth paths beyond the gold price.

Despite geopolitical and inflation-related cost increases, Barrick is posting robust figures. In 2024, net income rose 69 per cent to US$2.14 billion, driven by gold prices of around US$3,300 per ounce and efficient cost management. All-in sustaining costs were reduced on a quarterly basis, while production in Nevada and at the Veladero project on the Chilean-Argentinian border remained stable. With an EBITDA margin of 45 per cent and free cash flow doubling to US$1.32 billion, the Company is strengthening its balance sheet. Shareholders are benefiting from dividends and share buybacks totaling US$1.2 billion.

The Achilles’ heel remains geographical risk diversification. The suspension of production in Mali following tax disputes with the government is weighing on the 2025 forecast by up to 15 per cent. The key Reko Diq project in the conflict-prone region of Balochistan also harbors political uncertainties. Nevertheless, the current valuation appears attractive with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.6, as competitors such as Agnico Eagle are currently trading at around 25. If Barrick resumes production in Mali or implements its copper projects as planned, this could positively impact market sentiment. The share is currently trading at US$19.30.

Globex Mining – License model with a strategic focus on raw materials

The Canadian company Globex Mining (TSX:GMX) has established itself as an unusual player in the raw materials sector. Instead of conducting its own exploration or operating mines, the Company acts as a strategic licensor. It acquires promising projects, develops them, and then grants exploration or mining options to partners. Globex benefits from these deals through cash payments, shares in its partner companies, and, once production begins, royalties – i.e. ongoing participation in revenues. With over 250 projects in North America – primarily in precious metals, base metals, specialty metals, and also minerals – the portfolio offers broad diversification. CEO Jack Stoch, an experienced geologist, has been steering this strategy for decades.

Three announcements in April 2025 highlight the business model. At the Lac Escale lithium property in Quebec, partner Brunswick Exploration reported promising lithium discoveries of up to 1.51 per cent lithium oxide over 36 m. At the same time, Manganese X Energy confirmed high manganese grades of up to 15.7 per cent over 32 m at the Battery Hill manganese project in New Brunswick and expanded the resource. Both projects strengthen Globex’s role in the battery metals market. In addition, Renforth Resources increased the gold resources at the Parbec property in Quebec by 29per cent, in which Globex has a 3 per cent royalty interest.

Globex minimizes its risks through partnerships. Exploration costs are borne by the licensees. If they are successful, Globex receives royalty revenues once production begins. These agreements currently exist for 106 projects. Recent successes highlight how the approach works: discoveries or resource upgrades by partners increase the value of the properties – and thus future royalty revenues. With rising commodity prices and a geopolitical focus on North American supply chains, this model could become even more attractive. Since the beginning of November 2024, the share price has rallied over 60 per cent to C$1.63 and is currently consolidating. One share currently costs C$1.25.

Rio Tinto – Green aluminum from India as a growth driver

Rio Tinto and AMG Metals & Materials are looking into setting up climate-friendly aluminum production in India. They are planning a smelter with an annual capacity of up to 1 million tons and aluminum oxide production of 2 million tons. The first phase could be 500,000 tons. Renewable energy from wind, solar, and pumped storage will power the operation. India was chosen because of its dynamic economy and strategic location. The project is intended to strengthen Rio Tinto’s global presence in the low-emission segment and serve new markets such as the automotive and construction industries. AMG M&M is cooperating with energy service provider Greenko on the project. Both companies are also analyzing smelting technologies to optimize costs.

Extreme weather events in Australia’s Pilbara region pushed Rio Tinto’s iron ore production down to 69.8 million tons in the first quarter, a 10 per cent decline compared to the previous year. However, the annual forecast remains stable. Bauxite developed positively with an increase of 12 per cent and copper with 16 per cent. The first-time reporting of lithium production of 17,000 tons is a result of the Arcadium acquisition, which cost around US$7.6 billion. Despite a slight decline in Chinese steel production, the Company is sticking to its targets. Progress on key projects such as Simandou and the expansion of copper capacity to 1 million tons by 2030 highlight the Company’s growth ambitions.

Rio Tinto is balancing an attractive dividend yield of around 7 per cent with increasing investments in diversification. Dependence on the iron ore business remains a risk, as China’s real estate crisis and US tariffs could dampen demand. Planned capital expenditures of US$11 billion per year are weighing on the balance sheet, and net debt could rise further. Analysts at Deutsche Bank see a target price of 5,500 pence. The share price is currently 4,580 pence, corresponding to around €54.00.

In the battle for tomorrow’s supply chains, the players are pulling different levers. Barrick Gold is strategically diversifying into copper projects such as Reko Diq but is bracing itself against political risks in Mali. Globex Mining scores as a low-risk licensor with a broadly diversified portfolio in secure jurisdictions, increasing the value of its assets through partner discoveries. Rio Tinto is driving decarbonization forward with green aluminum in India, but is struggling with iron ore weaknesses and growing debt. While Barrick and Rio Tinto remain operational giants, Globex demonstrates how to achieve maximum commodity exposure with minimal capital investment.

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