John Tumazos is a highly experienced commodity and company analyst who has been providing his reports to clients for decades as a brokerage analyst and in the last 15 years at his firm John Tumazos Very Independent Research.
He has given permission to Granada Gold to distribute without charge his latest analysis of the gold market situation. Below is a summary and a description of his firm’s subscription details.
Best regards,
Wayne
Wayne Cheveldayoff,
Corporate Communications
P: 416-710-2410
E: [email protected]
From John Tumazos, Sept. 26, 2022:
Historically our gold industry research focuses on exploration and development success, and we hosted 68 gold miners and another 10 silver or royalty companies since 2008 among 112 companies we have hosted bought out for US $103 billion combined. Sometimes we have to wait 5, 10 or 20 years between gold price rallies, and we try to survive on exploration successes in the interim. Throughout 2022 we had forecast $1,850 gold rising by $25/oz/yr due to deeper mines, more complex metallurgy, higher strip ratios, lower productivity or lower ore grades to $2,050 by 2030 or $2,300 by 2040. This past weekend we trimmed our “moderate” scenario to $1,787 for 2022, $1,800 for 2023 and rising $25/oz/yr to $1,825 in 2024, $1,850 in 2025, a $75/oz lower $1,975 in 2030 and $75/oz lower $2,225/oz in 2040 due to the price declines since March.
However, recent dynamics greatly raise the potential for a “super boom” in which gold rises two-fold or five-fold towards $4,000 or $9,000 per oz. We note the potential for the Federal Reserve, ECB or other central banks to reverse to ease after the “pain” of unemployment, bankruptcies or Third World government defaults. We observe Uniper, the Right wing Italian government or the Sri Lanka financial collapses already. Second, federal budget deficits rise, where the Euro falls to epic lows as so many European governments subsidize residential utility bills, large energy users like smelters, fund the Ukraine or other priorities. Third, the U.S. trade deficit is near $1 trillion annually as China’s surplus rises.
In 2022 the world financial system changed in response to the “weaponization” of the SWIFT payment system to impose largely failed sanctions on Russia. Most of the world’s population appears to side with Russia, sadly, and even the USA and EU make “exceptions” to sanctions where convenient. So the Ruble rises near 20% and the Euro falls near 20% as the world’s best and worst currencies.
Since 2009 former communist and Third World nations have led about a 20% rise in net central bank gold reserves. Since 2009 net purchases every year total 6,767 t, 217.6 mm oz, 26 months of world mine output or US $359 billion worth of gold at $1,650. These nations outside of the G20 refuse to own the U.S. dollar, Euro or treasury bonds for “hard currency” reserves as they move to gold for safety. It is the beginning of a return to pre-20th century gold standards. Further, the pandemic, the EU 2022 energy crisis as Russia shuts off natural gas and slowing world economies combine to greatly increase the government debts of G20 nations often to more than 150% of GDP. Some of the G20 nations may not be able to borrow any more…..
Our salesman Mike Costa sent me the rant of a gold bull over the weekend https://youtu.be/UC2HxR7IWlg . The speaker’s criticism of the world financial system, the weaponization of the dollar, China and Russia’s effects to create new alternatives to bypass the SWIFT payment system, the increasing payment for crude oil in yuan or rubles and other new developments in 2022 are notable. The “super bull” gold scenario has increasing potential, despite the collapse of gold since March 2022. The US dollar collapse scenario has an increased basis, especially if most of the world no longer needs to hold the U.S. dollar or U.S. treasury bonds to pay for commerce.
In such a “doomsday scenario” of U.S. dollar collapse or further stock market collapses, gold prices, gold shares, base metals and base metals shares would be the likely best performers in the stock market or perhaps even could rise in absolute terms in a market collapse. If the dollar falls 1%, metals shares often rise 10% or vice versa as we have suffered for the past 6 months. If the dollar falls 50% and gold prices double, gold producer shares should more than double even in a falling market. Some of the earlier stage exploration or developers depend on their ability to raise exploration or construction capital, manage mushrooming capital construction costs or accurately estimate rising operating costs. It will be safer to own operating mines or the most advanced construction projects with definitive feasibility studies, detailed engineering or rigorous underlying conservative assumptions.
Faithfully,
John C. Tumazos, CFA
732 740 3574 (cellular)
John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC
[email protected]
www.veryindependentresearch.com/buy-our-reports
https://veryindependentresearch.net/conference-2022/
Note:
John Tumazos research can be bought “a la carte” via e-commerce via his web site for US $500/report via www.veryindependentresearch.com/buy-our-reports or via institutional one year subscriptions for US $25,000. Since July 2007 John’s office averages publication of 18 research reports each month across gold, royalty, base metals and forest products sectors. John’s research focuses on large cap stocks and industry dynamics. However, John also hosts 70+ companies in his conference or virtual conferences each year, where since 2008 John has hosted 112 companies bought out for US $103 billion collectively. See https://veryindependentresearch.net/conference-2022/ . Between 1979 and 2007 John worked for several large Wall Street firms, and ranked on the Institutional Investor All-American team for metals 43 times.
Granada Gold Mine Inc. Disclaimer:
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this report. This report may contain forward-looking statements which include, but are not limited to, comments that involve future events and conditions, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Except for statements of historical facts, comments that address resource potential, upcoming work programs, geological interpretations, receipt and security of mineral property titles, availability of funds, and others are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results may vary materially from those statements. General business conditions are factors that could cause actual results to vary materially from forward-looking statements.
Excellent Analyst Report: Odds Raised of an “Epic” Gold Price Rally: John Tumazos, Very Independent Research
