Copper squeeze builds with spreads surging and price near record

Copper rose toward a record on the London Metal Exchange, with soaring price spreads highlighting an increasingly acute squeeze in near-term supply.

The metal’s spot price traded as much as $545 a metric ton above the three-month futures contract, the widest backwardation since a historic squeeze in 2021 prompted the adoption of emergency measures to contain a runaway rally. Other spreads have also surged, and futures are closing in on a $14,500-plus peak reached during a spike in January.

The current supply crunch is being fueled by a surge in shipments to the US in anticipation of a potential decision on import tariffs, while recent tightness in China has also drawn cargoes there. That has led stockpiles across the LME’s global warehousing network to shrink by almost half since mid-May.

Investors were already warming to the metal, whose biggest application is in electrical wiring. They cite longer-term themes of robust demand powered by the energy transition toward electrification, the need to build data centers and infrastructure for artificial intelligence, as well as the mounting industry challenge of finding and funding new mining pits.

The elevated premium for the near-term delivery of copper “points to continued scarcity of available metal,” said Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at ING Groep NV. “We expect these supply constraints to keep the market well supported in the near term, particularly if demand remains resilient.”

The fireworks on Monday came at a key moment in the LME’s calendar, just ahead of the third Wednesday of the month, which is the main focus of liquidity in the exchange’s contracts.

Traders and brokers with short positions on that date were trying to cover their positions by buying cash contracts and selling later-dated ones, driving spreads higher, according to market participants. On the other side, owners of metal have been reluctant to relinquish it given the lucrative arbitrage opportunities presented by a surge in US prices on speculation of tariffs.

LME warehouses are a crucial last-resort source of supply to the physical copper industry, and metal in its depots can also be used to close out expiring futures contracts.

Global benchmark three-month futures advanced as much as 1.7% to $14,396 a ton on the LME before paring gains to trade at $14,179 as of 4:09 p.m. in London. The gains build on a seven-week winning streak.

Stockpiles tracked by the LME are currently just above 200,000 tons, the lowest volume since February. On Monday, they rose slightly after a 42-day run of declines, the longest since 2014.

Unbalanced inventories

A quirk of the current situation is that total global inventories are not particularly low, but are concentrated in the US as traders bet on President Donald Trump slapping tariffs on the refined metal. In addition, demand in China is not seen as particularly strong, but smelters there have struggled with feedstock supplies, increasing the need for imports.

The White House has kept the market guessing on plans for levies on refined copper, with no announcement emerging about seven weeks after a deadline for the Commerce Department to make a recommendation. Meanwhile, flows to the US have continued as markets price in a potential tariff.

With the cash-to-three month spread spiking, attention is turning to whether more copper might emerge from China, which often happens during periods of short-term supply pinches.

Among other LME metals, aluminum rose 0.6%, while zinc was up 0.3%, with advances also driven by a weaker US dollar, which aids commodities priced in the currency.